Mobile Cellular Technology Forecast for the Indonesian Telecommunications Industry
Main Article Content
Keywords
Telecommunication, 2G, 3G, 4G, Comparison analysis
Abstract
Current mobile telecommunications deployment in Indonesia, based on 2G, 3G and 4G technologies, lags behind many other developing countries because of Indonesia’s larger territory. This paper presents recent data on revenue growth (%) and the number of Base Transceiver Stations (BTSs) in Indonesia, divided among 2G, 3G and 4G technologies, and forecasts future revenue growth and numbers of BTSs for the next few years. The results show that, while revenue growth from 2G operation is decreasing and 4G deployment is significantly increasing, there are still significant revenues from 2G services and many 2G BTSs in operation at the end of the forecast period, making it difficult to shut down the 2G networks in the near future.
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Becona, J. P., Pereira, A. S., Vazquez, C., & Arnaud, A. (2017). A battery powered RTU: GPRS vs 3G comparison: IEEE Urucon 2017 paper 101. 2017 IEEE Urucon, Urucon 2017, 2017–December, 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1109/URUCON.2017.8171895
Berk, K. (2015). Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand. Wiesbaden: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-08669-5
Buchanan, W. J., Munoz, J., Manson, R., & Raja, K. (2004). Analysis and migration of location-finding methods for GSM and 3G networks. IEEE Conference Publication, (503), 352–358. https://doi.org/10.1049/cp:20040695
Campos, R. S. (2017). Evolution of positioning techniques in cellular networks, from 2G to 4G. Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/2315036
Celik, E. (2015). Investigation of the underground structure elements of GSM towers with GPR and GSM signal effects in GPR data. 2015 8th International Workshop on Advanced Ground Penetrating Radar, IWAGPR 2015, (1), 6–9. https://doi.org/10.1109/IWAGPR.2015.7292675
Charoenlap, S., & Uthansakul, P. (2016). Prediction of interference areas for 3G network based on drive test and throughput data. 2016 13th International Conference on Electrical Engineering/Electronics, Computer, Telecommunications and Information Technology, ECTI-CON 2016. https://doi.org/10.1109/ECTICon.2016.7561346
Choi, J. K., Cho, H., Oh, H. S., Kim, K. H., Bhang, M. J., Yu, I. S., & Ryu, H. G. (2015). Challenges of LTE high-speed railway network to coexist with LTE public safety network. International Conference on Advanced Communication Technology, ICACT, 2015–August, 543–547. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICACT.2015.7224854
Ezhilarasan, E., & Dinakaran, M. (2017). A Review on Mobile Technologies: 3G, 4G and 5G. Proceedings - 2017 2nd International Conference on Recent Trends and Challenges in Computational Models, ICRTCCM 2017, 369–373. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRTCCM.2017.90
Fadrian, A., & Arifin, A. S. (2018). Study on 2G Termination in Indonesia using BCG Matrix. Proceedings of 2018 5th International Conference on Information Technology, Computer, and Electrical Engineering (ICITACEE), 142–146. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICITACEE.2018.8576904
Fildes, R., Ma, S., & Kolassa, S. (2019). Retail forecasting: Research and practice, International Journal of Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.06.004
Ibrani, M., Hamiti, E., Ahma, L., Halili, R., & Dragusha, B. (2017). Comparative analysis of downlink signal levels emitted by GSM 900, GSM 1800, UMTS, and LTE base stations. 2017 16th Annual Mediterranean Ad Hoc Networking Workshop, Med-Hoc-Net 2017, 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1109/MedHocNet.2017.8001655
Jha, A., & Saha, D. (2019). Techno-commercial feasibility analysis of 4G mobile services in India. IIMB Management Review, 31(2), 182–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iimb.2019.03.007
Jha, A., & Saha, D. (2020). Forecasting and analysing the characteristics of 3G and 4G mobile broadband diffusion in India: A comparative evaluation of Bass, Norton-Bass, Gompertz, and logistic growth models. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 152 (April 2017), 119885. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119885
Jia, W. (2017). Enlightenment from the Innovative Application of 4G Communication Technology in the Mobile Library. Proceedings - 2016 International Conference on Smart City and Systems Engineering, ICSCSE 2016, 3, 153–156. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSCSE.2016.0050
Jung, W., & Kwon, Y. (2015). Differences between LTE and 3G service customers: Business and policy implications. Telematics and Informatics, 32(4), 667–680. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tele.2015.03.001
Labib, M., Marojevic, V., & Reed, J. H. (2016). Analyzing and enhancing the resilience of LTE/LTE-A systems to RF spoofing. 2015 IEEE Conference on Standards for Communications and Networking, CSCN 2015, 315–320. https://doi.org/10.1109/CSCN.2015.7390464
Kominfo. (2017). Profil Industri Seluler Tahun 2017. Ministry of Communication and Informatics of Indonesia.
Kominfo. (2018). Studi Analisis Industri Telekomunikasi Indonesia untuk Mendukung Efisiensi. Ministry of Communication and Informatics of Indonesia.
Letavin, D. A., Konovalov, A. L., & Sychugov, S. G. (2018). Planar antenna array for 3G and 4G wireless communication. Moscow Workshop on Electronic and Networking Technologies, MWENT 2018 - Proceedings, IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/MWENT.2018.8337279
Ma, S., & Fildes, R. (2020). Forecasting third-party mobile payments with implications for customer flow prediction. International Journal of Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.08.012
Masmoudi, A., Bellili, F., Affes, S., & Ghrayeb, A. (2017). Maximum Likelihood Time Delay Estimation from Single- and Multi-Carrier DSSS Multipath MIMO Transmissions for Future 5G Networks. IEEE Transactions on Wireless Communications, 16(8), 4851–4865. https://doi.org/10.1109/TWC.2017.2701796
McLaurin, D. J., Gard, K. G., Schubert, R. P., Manglani, M. J., Zhu, H., Alldred, D., Li, Z., Bal, S. R., Fan, J., Gysel, O, E., Mayer, C, M., & Montalvo, T. (2018). A highly reconfigurable 65nm CMOS RF-to-bits transceiver for full-band multicarrier TDD/FDD 2G/3G/4G/5G macro basestations. Digest of Technical Papers - IEEE International Solid-State Circuits Conference, 61, 162–164. https://doi.org/10.1109/ISSCC.2018.8310234
Meade, N., & Islam, T. (2015). Forecasting in telecommunications and ICT - A review. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(4), 1105–1126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.09.003
Sanjari, M. J., Gooi, H. B. (2017). Probabilistic forecast of pv power generation based on higher order Markov chain. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 32(4), 2942-2952. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2016.2616902
Tamgno, J. K., Alidou, I. S. O.-T. A., & Lishou, C. (2018). Optimization of HPSA + Capacity of Mobile Network. International Conference on Advanced Communications Technology (ICACT), 714–719. https://doi.org/10.23919/ICACT.2018.8323894
Turniški, F., Lackovi?, S., Zentner Pilinsky, S., & Tekovi?, A. (2016). Analysis of 3G and 4G download throughput in pedestrian zones. Proceedings Elmar - International Symposium Electronics in Marine, September, 9–12. https://doi.org/10.1109/ELMAR.2016.7731743
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Published
Mar 31, 2020
Article Details
How to Cite
Hidayat, T., Mahardiko, R., & Alaydrus, M. (2020). Mobile Cellular Technology Forecast for the Indonesian Telecommunications Industry. Journal of Telecommunications and the Digital Economy, 8(1), 37–48. https://doi.org/10.18080/jtde.v8n1.226
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Technical Note
Copyright Telecommunications Association Inc.
