How Important is Mobile Broadband Latency for Total Factor Productivity Growth?
Main Article Content
Keywords
ICT, Productivity, Latency, Mobile broadband networks, Economic development
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between the log change in mobile broadband latency and total factor productivity (TFP) growth based on data for 130 countries. It finds that there is a strong negative correlation between TFP growth and one year lag of latency growth in OECD countries. The interpretation of the findings is that a 10 percentage points decrease in the growth of latency in period t-1 is associated with an increase of 0.3 percentage points in TFP growth. The findings are in accordance with the framework of General Purpose Technologies that suggests that the impact of new technologies often appear with a lag. Moreover, no relationship is found for the total sample or for non-OECD countries. One possible explanation could be that OECD countries have reached a higher maturity in digitalisation and automation in production processes and thus are able to take advantage of the benefits of lower latency.
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References
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Cobb, C. W., & Douglas, P. H. (1928). A theory of production’ American Economic Review, 18(1), 139–165. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1811556
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Corrado, C., Hulten, C., & Sichel, D. (2009). Intangible capital and U.S. economic growth. Review of Income and Wealth, 55(3), 661–685. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4991.2009.00343.x
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Dahl, C., Kongsted, H. C., & Sørensen, A. (2010). ICT and productivity growth in the 1990s: Panel data evidence on Europe. Empirical Economics, 40(1), 141–164. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-010-0421-4
Dar, A. A. (2018). Cloud computing-positive impacts and challenges in business perspective. Journal of Computer Science and Systems Biology, 12(1), 15–18. https://doi.org/10.4172/jcsb.1000294
David, P. A. (1990). The dynamo and the computer: an historical perspective on the modern productivity paradox. American Economic Review, 80(2), 355–361. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2006600
Devine, W. (1983). From shaft to wires: Historical perspective on electrification. Journal of Economic History, 43(2), 347–372. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050700029673
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Edquist, H., & Henrekson, M. (2017) Do R&D and ICT affect total factor productivity growth differently?. Telecommunications Policy, 41(2), 106–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2016.11.010
Edquist, H., Goodridge, P., Haskel, J., Lee, X., & Lindquist, E. (2018). How important are mobile broadband networks for the global economic development?. Information, Economics and Policy, 45, 16–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infoecopol.2018.10.001
Edquist, H., Goodridge, P., & Haskel, J. (2021). The Internet of Things and economic growth in a panel of countries. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 30(3), 262–283. https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2019.1695941
Edquist, H. (2022). The economic impact of mobile broadband speed. Telecommunications Policy, 46, 102351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2022.102351
Goodridge, P., Haskel, J., & Edquist, H. (2019). The economic contribution of the “C” in ICT: Evidence from OECD countries. Journal of Comparative Economics, 47(4), 867–880. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2019.07.001
Gordon, R. J. (2000). Does the ‘new economy’ measure up to the great inventions of the past?. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(4), 49–74. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.14.4.49
Greenwood, J. (1999). The third industrial revolution: Technology productivity and income inequality. Economic Review, 35(2), 2–12. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/frbclevreview/rev_frbclev_1999q2.pdf?utm_source=direct_download
Gruber, H., & Koutroumpis, P. (2011). Mobile telecommunications and the impact on economic development. Economic Policy, 26(67), 387–426. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2011.00266.x
Gruber, H., Hätönen, J., & Koutroumpis, P. (2014). Broadband access in the EU: An assessment of future economic benefits. Telecommunications Policy, 38(11), 1046–1058. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2014.06.007
GSMA. (2024). GSMA Wireless Intelligence Database. [Database]. Accessed 2 February 2024. Available from https://data.gsmaintelligence.com/
Helpman, E. (1998). General Purpose Technologies and Economic Growth. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.
Inklaar, R., & Timmer, M. (2008). GGDC productivity level database: International comparison of output, inputs and productivity at the industry level. Research Memorandum GD-104. Groningen. https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/html_publications/memorandum/gd104.pdf
ITU. (2021). The economic impact of broadband and digitization through the COVID-19 pandemic: Econometric modelling. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. https://www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-d/opb/pref/D-PREF-EF.COV_ECO_IMPACT_B-2021-PDF-E.pdf
Jorgenson, D. W., Ho, M. S., & Stiroh, K. J. (2008). A retrospective look at the U.S. productivity resurgence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(1), 3–24. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.22.1.3
Kongaut, C., & Bohlin, E. (2014). Impact of broadband speeds and economic outputs: An empirical study of OECD countries. Paper presented at the 25th European Regional Conference of the International Telecommunications Society (ITS), 22–25 June 2014, Brussels. Available from https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/101415/1/795234465.pdf
Leszczensky, L., & Wolbring, T. (2022). How to deal with reverse causality using panel data? Recommendations for researchers based on a simulation study. Sociological Methods & Research, 5(2), 837–865. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124119882473
Marrano, M., Haskel, J., & Wallis, G. (2009). What happened to the knowledge economy? ICT, intangible investment and Britain’s productivity record revisited. Review of Income and Wealth, 55(3), 686–716. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4991.2009.00344.x
NGNM. (2015). NGNM 5G white paper. Next Generation Mobile Networks. Berkshire.
Niebel, T. (2018). ICT and economic growth – Comparing developing, emerging and developed countries. World Development, 104, 197–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.11.024
Oliner, S. D., & Sichel, D. (2000). The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: Is Information technology the story?. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(4), 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.14.4.3
O’Mahony, M., & Vecchi, M. (2005). Quantifying the impact of ICT capital on output growth: A heterogeneous dynamic panel approach. Economica, 72(288), 615–633. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2005.0435.x
Ookla. (2022). Speedtest Intelligence database. [Database]. Accessed 14 October 2022. Available from https://www.ookla.com
Reed, R. W. (2015). On the practice to lag variables to avoid simultaneity. Oxford Bulletin on Statistics, 77(6), 897–905. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12088
Rohman, I. K., & Bohlin, E. (2012). Does broadband speed really matter for driving economic growth? Investing OECD countries. International Journal of Management and Network Economics, 2(4), 336–356. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJMNE.2012.051888
Röller, L. H., & Waverman, L. (2001). Telecommunications infrastructure and economic development: A simultaneous approach. American Economic Review, 91(4), 909–923. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.4.909
Siddiqi, M. A., Yu, H., & Joung, J. (2019). 5G ultra-reliable low-latency communication implementation and operational issues with IoT devices. Electronics, 8(9), 981. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics8090981
Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
Solow, R. M. (1957). Technical change and the aggregate production function. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(3), 312–320. https://doi.org/10.2307/1926047
Solow, R. M. (1987). We’d Better Watch Out. New York Times Book Review. New York Times, July 12, 1987. Available at http://digamo.free.fr/solow87.pdf
Stiroh, K. J. (2002a). Are ICT spillovers driving the new economy?. Review of Income and Wealth, 48(1), 33–57. http://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4991.00039
Stiroh, K. J. (2002b). Information technology and the U.S. productivity revival: what do the industry data say?. American Economic Review, 92(5), 1559–1576. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024638
Stiroh, K. J. (2005). Reassessing the impact of IT in the production function: A meta-analysis and sensitivity tests. Annales d’Éconmie et de Statistique, 79/80, 529–561. https://doi.org/10.2307/20777587
Sundaresan, K., White, G., & Glennon, S. (2020).‘Latency measurement: What is latency and how do we measure it. National Cable and Telecommunications Association. Washington D.C. https://www.nctatechnicalpapers.com/Paper/2020/2020-latency-measurement
Thompson, H. G., & Garbacz, C. (2011). Economic impacts of mobile versus fixed broadband. Telecommunications Policy, 35(11), 999–1009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2011.07.004
Vaisey, S., & Miles, A. (2017). What you can–and can’t–do with three-wave panel data. Sociological Methods & Research, 46(1), 44–67. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124114547769
Van Ark, B., O’Mahony, M., & Timmer, M. (2008). The productivity gap between Europe and the United States: Trends and causes. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(1), 25–44. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.22.1.25
Van Leeuwen, G., & Van der Wiel, H. (2003). Do ICT spillover matter: Evidence from Dutch firm-level data. CPB Discussion Paper No. 26. The Hague. https://www.cpb.nl/sites/default/files/publicaties/download/do-ict-spillovers-matter-evidence-dutch-firm-level-data.pdf
Van Reenen, J., Bloom, N., Draca, M., Kretschmer, T., Sadun, R., Overman, H., & Schankerman, M. (2010). The economic impact of ICT. Centre for Economic Performance. Centre for Economic Performance. London. https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/mdraca/cstudytheeconomicimpactofictlondonschoolofeconomics.pdf
Vu, K., Hanafizadeh, P., & Bohlin, E. (2020). ICT as a driver of economic growth: A survey of the literature and directions for future work. Telecommunications Policy, 44, 101922. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2020.101922
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Zhang, L., Tao, Y., & Nie, C. (2022). Does broadband infrastructure boost firm productivity? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China. Finance Research Letters, 48, 102886. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102886
Basu, S., Fernald, J. G., Oulton, N., & Srinivasan, S. (2003). The case of the missing productivity growth, or does information technology explain why productivity accelerated in the United States but not in the United Kingdom. In Gertler, M., & Rogoff, K., NBER Macroeconomics Annuals 2003. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.
Basu, S., & Fernald, J. G. (2007). Information and communications technology as a general-purpose technology: Evidence from US industry data. German Economic Review, 8(2), 79–93. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0475.2007.00402.x
Bertschek, I., Briglauer, W., Hüschelrath, K., Kauf, B., & Niebel, T. (2015). The economic impacts of telecommunications networks and broadband Internet: A survey. Review of Network Economics, 14(4), 201–227. https://doi.org/10.1515/rne-2016-0032
Bloom, N., Sadun, R., & Van Reenen, J. (2012). Americans do IT better: US multinationals and the productivity miracle. American Economic Review, 102(1), 167–201. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.1.167
Bresnahan, T. F., & Trajtenberg, M. (1995). General purpose technologies ‘engines of growth’?. Journal of Econometrics, 65(1), 83–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01598-T
Briglauer W., & Gugler, K. (2019). Go for gigabit? First evidence on economic benefits of high-speed broadband technologies in Europe. Journal of Common Market Studies, 57(5), 1071–1090. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12872
Brynjolfsson, E., & Hitt, L. M. (2003). Computing productivity: Firm level evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 793–808. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465303772815736
Cobb, C. W., & Douglas, P. H. (1928). A theory of production’ American Economic Review, 18(1), 139–165. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1811556
Conference Board. (2022). Total Economy database [Database]. Accessed 6 April 2023. Available from https://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/total-economy-database-productivity
Corrado, C., Hulten, C., & Sichel, D. (2009). Intangible capital and U.S. economic growth. Review of Income and Wealth, 55(3), 661–685. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4991.2009.00343.x
Czernich, N., Falck, O., Kretschmer, T., & Woessman, L. (2011). Broadband infrastructure and economic growth. Economic Journal, 121(552), 505–532. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02420.x
Dahl, C., Kongsted, H. C., & Sørensen, A. (2010). ICT and productivity growth in the 1990s: Panel data evidence on Europe. Empirical Economics, 40(1), 141–164. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-010-0421-4
Dar, A. A. (2018). Cloud computing-positive impacts and challenges in business perspective. Journal of Computer Science and Systems Biology, 12(1), 15–18. https://doi.org/10.4172/jcsb.1000294
David, P. A. (1990). The dynamo and the computer: an historical perspective on the modern productivity paradox. American Economic Review, 80(2), 355–361. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2006600
Devine, W. (1983). From shaft to wires: Historical perspective on electrification. Journal of Economic History, 43(2), 347–372. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050700029673
De Vries, K., & Erumban A. A. (2022). Total economy database: A detailed guide to its sources and method. Conference Board, New York. https://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/total-economy-database-methodology
De Vries, K. (2023). Global Productivity Brief 2023. Economy, Strategy and Finance Center, Conference Board. New York. https://www.conference-board.org/pdfdownload.cfm?masterProductID=46310
Edquist, H., & Henrekson, M. (2006). Technological breakthroughs and productivity growth. Research in Economic History, 24, 1–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0363-3268(06)24001-1
Edquist, H., & Henrekson, M. (2017) Do R&D and ICT affect total factor productivity growth differently?. Telecommunications Policy, 41(2), 106–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2016.11.010
Edquist, H., Goodridge, P., Haskel, J., Lee, X., & Lindquist, E. (2018). How important are mobile broadband networks for the global economic development?. Information, Economics and Policy, 45, 16–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infoecopol.2018.10.001
Edquist, H., Goodridge, P., & Haskel, J. (2021). The Internet of Things and economic growth in a panel of countries. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 30(3), 262–283. https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2019.1695941
Edquist, H. (2022). The economic impact of mobile broadband speed. Telecommunications Policy, 46, 102351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2022.102351
Goodridge, P., Haskel, J., & Edquist, H. (2019). The economic contribution of the “C” in ICT: Evidence from OECD countries. Journal of Comparative Economics, 47(4), 867–880. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2019.07.001
Gordon, R. J. (2000). Does the ‘new economy’ measure up to the great inventions of the past?. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(4), 49–74. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.14.4.49
Greenwood, J. (1999). The third industrial revolution: Technology productivity and income inequality. Economic Review, 35(2), 2–12. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/frbclevreview/rev_frbclev_1999q2.pdf?utm_source=direct_download
Gruber, H., & Koutroumpis, P. (2011). Mobile telecommunications and the impact on economic development. Economic Policy, 26(67), 387–426. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2011.00266.x
Gruber, H., Hätönen, J., & Koutroumpis, P. (2014). Broadband access in the EU: An assessment of future economic benefits. Telecommunications Policy, 38(11), 1046–1058. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2014.06.007
GSMA. (2024). GSMA Wireless Intelligence Database. [Database]. Accessed 2 February 2024. Available from https://data.gsmaintelligence.com/
Helpman, E. (1998). General Purpose Technologies and Economic Growth. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.
Inklaar, R., & Timmer, M. (2008). GGDC productivity level database: International comparison of output, inputs and productivity at the industry level. Research Memorandum GD-104. Groningen. https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/html_publications/memorandum/gd104.pdf
ITU. (2021). The economic impact of broadband and digitization through the COVID-19 pandemic: Econometric modelling. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. https://www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-d/opb/pref/D-PREF-EF.COV_ECO_IMPACT_B-2021-PDF-E.pdf
Jorgenson, D. W., Ho, M. S., & Stiroh, K. J. (2008). A retrospective look at the U.S. productivity resurgence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(1), 3–24. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.22.1.3
Kongaut, C., & Bohlin, E. (2014). Impact of broadband speeds and economic outputs: An empirical study of OECD countries. Paper presented at the 25th European Regional Conference of the International Telecommunications Society (ITS), 22–25 June 2014, Brussels. Available from https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/101415/1/795234465.pdf
Leszczensky, L., & Wolbring, T. (2022). How to deal with reverse causality using panel data? Recommendations for researchers based on a simulation study. Sociological Methods & Research, 5(2), 837–865. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124119882473
Marrano, M., Haskel, J., & Wallis, G. (2009). What happened to the knowledge economy? ICT, intangible investment and Britain’s productivity record revisited. Review of Income and Wealth, 55(3), 686–716. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4991.2009.00344.x
NGNM. (2015). NGNM 5G white paper. Next Generation Mobile Networks. Berkshire.
Niebel, T. (2018). ICT and economic growth – Comparing developing, emerging and developed countries. World Development, 104, 197–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.11.024
Oliner, S. D., & Sichel, D. (2000). The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: Is Information technology the story?. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(4), 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.14.4.3
O’Mahony, M., & Vecchi, M. (2005). Quantifying the impact of ICT capital on output growth: A heterogeneous dynamic panel approach. Economica, 72(288), 615–633. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2005.0435.x
Ookla. (2022). Speedtest Intelligence database. [Database]. Accessed 14 October 2022. Available from https://www.ookla.com
Reed, R. W. (2015). On the practice to lag variables to avoid simultaneity. Oxford Bulletin on Statistics, 77(6), 897–905. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12088
Rohman, I. K., & Bohlin, E. (2012). Does broadband speed really matter for driving economic growth? Investing OECD countries. International Journal of Management and Network Economics, 2(4), 336–356. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJMNE.2012.051888
Röller, L. H., & Waverman, L. (2001). Telecommunications infrastructure and economic development: A simultaneous approach. American Economic Review, 91(4), 909–923. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.4.909
Siddiqi, M. A., Yu, H., & Joung, J. (2019). 5G ultra-reliable low-latency communication implementation and operational issues with IoT devices. Electronics, 8(9), 981. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics8090981
Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
Solow, R. M. (1957). Technical change and the aggregate production function. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(3), 312–320. https://doi.org/10.2307/1926047
Solow, R. M. (1987). We’d Better Watch Out. New York Times Book Review. New York Times, July 12, 1987. Available at http://digamo.free.fr/solow87.pdf
Stiroh, K. J. (2002a). Are ICT spillovers driving the new economy?. Review of Income and Wealth, 48(1), 33–57. http://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4991.00039
Stiroh, K. J. (2002b). Information technology and the U.S. productivity revival: what do the industry data say?. American Economic Review, 92(5), 1559–1576. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024638
Stiroh, K. J. (2005). Reassessing the impact of IT in the production function: A meta-analysis and sensitivity tests. Annales d’Éconmie et de Statistique, 79/80, 529–561. https://doi.org/10.2307/20777587
Sundaresan, K., White, G., & Glennon, S. (2020).‘Latency measurement: What is latency and how do we measure it. National Cable and Telecommunications Association. Washington D.C. https://www.nctatechnicalpapers.com/Paper/2020/2020-latency-measurement
Thompson, H. G., & Garbacz, C. (2011). Economic impacts of mobile versus fixed broadband. Telecommunications Policy, 35(11), 999–1009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2011.07.004
Vaisey, S., & Miles, A. (2017). What you can–and can’t–do with three-wave panel data. Sociological Methods & Research, 46(1), 44–67. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124114547769
Van Ark, B., O’Mahony, M., & Timmer, M. (2008). The productivity gap between Europe and the United States: Trends and causes. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(1), 25–44. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.22.1.25
Van Leeuwen, G., & Van der Wiel, H. (2003). Do ICT spillover matter: Evidence from Dutch firm-level data. CPB Discussion Paper No. 26. The Hague. https://www.cpb.nl/sites/default/files/publicaties/download/do-ict-spillovers-matter-evidence-dutch-firm-level-data.pdf
Van Reenen, J., Bloom, N., Draca, M., Kretschmer, T., Sadun, R., Overman, H., & Schankerman, M. (2010). The economic impact of ICT. Centre for Economic Performance. Centre for Economic Performance. London. https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/mdraca/cstudytheeconomicimpactofictlondonschoolofeconomics.pdf
Vu, K., Hanafizadeh, P., & Bohlin, E. (2020). ICT as a driver of economic growth: A survey of the literature and directions for future work. Telecommunications Policy, 44, 101922. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2020.101922
World Bank. (2023a). World development indicators. [Database]. Accessed 6 October 2023. Available from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD
World Bank. (2023b). World Bank Country and Lending Groups. [Database]. Accessed 8 September 2023. Available from https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups
Zhang, L., Tao, Y., & Nie, C. (2022). Does broadband infrastructure boost firm productivity? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China. Finance Research Letters, 48, 102886. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102886
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Mar 27, 2024
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How to Cite
Edquist, H. . (2024). How Important is Mobile Broadband Latency for Total Factor Productivity Growth?. Journal of Telecommunications and the Digital Economy, 12(1), 305–327. https://doi.org/10.18080/jtde.v12n1.824
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Section
Special Issue: Emerging Technologies and Innovation for Digital Economy and Transformation
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